Drug Effectiveness

Source: https://www.understandinganimalresearch.org.uk/news/communications-media/nine-out-of-ten-statistics-are-taken-out-of-context/

See Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research

According to Biomedtracker, the "historical success rate of P2 trials is about 20%".

Source: Jason Napodano (SA).

See Also: FDA Fast Track Data: https://fda.report/media/102796/New-Drug-Applications-%28NDA%29-and-Biologic-License-Applications-%28BLA%29-Approval-Times--1993-2016.pdf (more info here)

Source: Clinical Development Success Rates 2006-2015 (BIO, Biomedtracker, Amplion 2016), page 7 / figure 1.

For oncology, it's even worse. Estimates range from 5% to 13%, with 60% failure between phase 2 and 3.

Source: Why Phase 3 Clinical Trials Fail.

At Phase 3, it's only a 34% success rate.

Source: https://cctst.uc.edu/sites/default/files/2011/Slides%20Berry%202011-06-17.pdf (slide 89, regarding standard phase 2 cancer drug trials)